Cybersecurity Under Siege, Memory Strength, NVDA Earnings In A Divided Market
Weekly Outlook 02/23/26
Market Recap
It was a choppy week that ultimately ended with small gains. The big story on Friday was the Supreme Court ruling 6-3 that President Trump exceeded his authority in using emergency powers (IEEPA) to impose sweeping “reciprocal” global tariffs. In response, Trump signaled he would impose a temporary 10% levy on imports under a different statute (Section 122 of the Trade Act), giving a 150-day window. All major indices remain rangebound despite the positive reaction and rally on Friday.
Value-oriented and defensive sectors continue to outperform, including consumer staples, materials, energy, and industrials with all four up more than 10% this year.
One key chart heading into the week was the MAGS 0.00%↑ ETF, a measure of the collective strength of the Magnificent 7 stocks and a heavily weighted component of the major tech indices. Despite the pressure on the sector, the ETF managed to hold its key 200-day simple moving average this week, a level that will be closely watched going forward.
Metals were the standout winners of Friday’s session. Gold closed above $5,100 and silver surged back above $84, with silver up around 7.5% on the day. The moves were possibly driven by a combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the tariff ruling.
Anthropic’s release of Claude Code Security on Friday added another headwind for the software sector, with cybersecurity names bearing the brunt of the selling as AI disruption concerns continue to weigh on the space.
Watchlist
Earnings season continues with Nvidia firmly in focus on Wednesday afternoon. Technically, the stock has consolidated within a range for the past six months and could be primed for a breakout if the report and market reaction are favourable.
Other notable names to watch this week:
HIMS 0.00%↑ reports while sitting at 52-week lows after a prolonged selloff, making it a closely watched turnaround candidate.
CIFR 0.00%↑ MARA 0.00%↑ and HUT 0.00%↑ are worth monitoring in the datacenter space.
IONQ 0.00%↑ and QBTS 0.00%↑ are both forming bear flags, a technical setup that could be triggered after earnings.
EOSE 0.00%↑ and VST 0.00%↑ are some names to track in the AI energy theme.
RXT 0.00%↑ had a strong move last week on the back of a Palantir partnership announcement and now heads into its own earnings report.
RKLB 0.00%↑ continues to attract attention as one of the more popular growth names in the space sector.
CRWV 0.00%↑ was hit on Friday following Blue Owl funding news and also reports earnings this week.
Other stocks to watch:
IREN 0.00%↑ is trading in a tight technical range and could see a breakdown below the $39 level.
NBIS 0.00%↑ was a standout performer post-earnings, showing impressive relative strength for five consecutive days while the broader market struggled. Friday's pullback appeared to be more a casualty of group weakness than any stock-specific deterioration, making it an interesting name to watch for a potential bid as the dust settles.
One interesting market to watch globally is the South Korea ETF, which has been exceptionally strong, driven by AI-fueled demand for semiconductors and memory, with SK Hynix contributing a significant portion of the index’s move. EWY 0.00%↑ and KORU 0.00%↑ are potential vehicles to keep track of.
Meanwhile, US based memory stocks SNDK 0.00%↑ and MU 0.00%↑ are holding up well and are on watch this week to see if they can make a continuation leg higher, particularly if the South Korea semiconductor momentum carries over.
IBRX 0.00%↑ after rallying over 300% off its lows, made another notable move last week.
Cybersecurity stocks came under pressure last week following the Anthropic Claude Code Security news. Watching to see if selling continues across CRWD 0.00%↑ FROG 0.00%↑ ZS 0.00%↑ NET 0.00%↑ PANW 0.00%↑ and OKTA 0.00%↑.
Many of the cybersecurity names overlap heavily with the software ETF, and the IGV 0.00%↑ ETF’s $80 level has emerged as a critical line in the sand. What makes the setup particularly striking is that despite significant retail inflows into the space, the price continues to lag, suggesting that institutional distribution may be quietly overwhelming the buying. A decisive break below $80 would be a meaningful technical deterioration worth taking seriously.
Final Thoughts
It has been a choppy couple of weeks, with markets grinding through a wall of uncertainty. With some key clearing events now in the rear view mirror, notably the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and NVDA earnings looming on Wednesday, the market is approaching a potential inflection point. The next few sessions could go a long way in determining whether this consolidation resolves higher or whether the recent weakness has more room to run.
As the old trading adage goes: from consolidation comes expansion. The longer and tighter the range, the more powerful the eventual move tends to be. The spring is coiled, and the market is telling us it is almost ready to show its hand.
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