Weekly Market Recap, Watchlist & Trade Highlights 06/16/25

Rising volatility, Market pulls back on Israel-Iran conflict, Solar stocks

Jun 15, 2025

Market Recap

The week started quiet, before staging a reversal on Wednesday following a small but noticeable shift in tone. Despite receiving two pieces of positive news: cooling CPI data and progress in U.S. China negotiations, the major indices closed in the red.

The IWM (Russell 2000 small-cap index) also began pulling back after testing its 200-day moving average (also posted here).

On Thursday evening, geopolitical tensions escalated when Israel launched missile strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. In response, equity futures dropped nearly 2% overnight. While markets opened Friday with a rebound attempt, the rally faded, and indices closed at session lows - driven by growing uncertainty around potential escalation heading into the weekend.

Meanwhile:

Crude oil surged over 11% on the day.
Gold broke out over it’s recent consolidation range.
The VIX spiked above 20 for the first time in quite a while, signaling a notable uptick in market fear and uncertainty.

As volatility and geopolitical uncertainty increase, the market environment could be subtly shifting away from the steady, swing-friendly trend we’ve enjoyed in the last two months. During times like these, it’s often wise to:

Shorten timeframes on new trades
Stay nimble and size down
Avoid overcommitting until the VIX retreats and indices reestablish momentum to the upside

That said, we must also be ready to capitalize once the fear subsides. Markets can often pivot quickly from uncertainty to opportunity, and strong momentum thrusts may emerge as volatility cools. It’s important to remain flexible and alert, especially given that the longer-term trend remains bullish.

It’s worth noting that the FOMC interest rate decision is scheduled for Wednesday, and the markets will be closed on Thursday in observance of Juneteenth.

Watchlist

Many small-cap oil stocks surged on Friday, fueled by strong moves in underlying oil futures. Given their volatility, these names could offer attractive short-term trading opportunities heading into next week.

IMPP 0.00%↑ HUSA 0.00%↑ INDO 0.00%↑ USEG 0.00%↑ RBNE 0.00%↑

CRCL 0.00%↑ saw a strong breakout on Friday, possibly fueled by positive sentiment around stablecoins, on news that Walmart and Amazon are exploring issuing their own stablecoins.

CRWV 0.00%↑ is currently consolidating in a tight two-day trading range after forming a double top earlier in the week. The setup is coiled and could resolve in either direction:

A break below last week’s lows would take price under the 10-day EMA, which has been a reliable trend guide throughout May. That could open the door to a short-term pullback or trend break.
Conversely, a move above Friday’s high could signal renewed strength and trigger a momentum rally, especially if accompanied by volume.

QBTS 0.00%↑ sold off sharply throughout the week following its $400M offering announcement, which triggered heavy selling pressure. Notably, the stock has now closed below both the 10-day and 20-day moving averages for the first time since its breakout - an important shift in short-term trend.

Additionally, there is an unfilled gap below, which could act as a magnet for price if weakness continues.

TSLA 0.00%↑ rebounded this week following a shift in sentiment around both its leadership and regulatory outlook:

Early in the week, Elon Musk publicly apologized to Donald Trump, easing tensions between the two and de-escalating their ongoing feud.

On Friday, Bloomberg reported that the "United States moves to ease rules hindering Tesla’s self-driving Cybercab", a headline that added fuel to the rebound and reignited interest in the company's autonomous vehicle ambitions.

After a bout of volatility, TSLA is now consolidating, potentially building a base for its next move.

Solar

Solar stocks showed relative strength on Friday, bucking the broader market’s weakness and standing out amid rising volatility.

The TAN 0.00%↑ ETF has been in a multi-year downtrend, repeatedly failing at the 200-day moving average over the past few years. However, it's now positioned at a key technical inflection point, sitting right along a trendline that dates back two years.

A close above $36 would mark the first higher high in a while, potentially signaling the early stages of a trend reversal.

While the solar sector remains a long-term underperformer, Friday’s outperformance and proximity to a major resistance level make it a compelling setup to watch in the week ahead.

RUN 0.00%↑ saw some analyst comments on Friday: Roth sees removing residential leasing denial for 48E as meaningful positive for Sunrun.

SEDG 0.00%↑ had a standout session on Friday with the highest close in 10 months.

NXT 0.00%↑ remains one of the strongest solar-related stocks, trading near its all-time highs and firmly in an uptrend.

Its resilience contrasts with broader sector weakness over the past months, making it a standout name to watch for continued leadership if the solar space gains further traction.

Trade Recaps

RKLB 0.00%↑ was highlighted in last week’s watchlist. After entering a position on Friday, the stock gapped up on Monday and broke out following a brief morning dip. However, heavy selling pressure above $30 led to a selloff throughout the day. I scaled out of the position as weakness persisted, ultimately exiting the remainder below Monday’s open low.

Other speculative space stocks also declined after Trump stated that SpaceX contracts would not be canceled, adding to the sector’s headwinds.