Weekly Market Recap, Watchlist & Trade Highlights 06/23/25

Geopolitical escalation weighs on markets as U.S. strikes Iran and Strait of Hormuz closure looms

Jun 22, 2025

Market Recap

In a holiday-shortened week, the SPY drifted lower, closing in negative territory amid continued uncertainty surrounding the Israel-Iran conflict.

Both SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ ended the week below their respective daily 10-day exponential moving averages (EMA), with the slope of the 10EMA beginning to flatten. This suggests a stall in the strong upside momentum and trend that has been in place since early May. Notably, neither index has closed below the 20EMA since April 24.

Despite near-term weakness, the broader trend remains bullish on a longer timeframe, as both indices continue to trade above their key longer-term moving averages (50, 100, and 200-day). However, given the sharp recovery off the April "liberation panic" lows, a healthy pullback or period of sideways consolidation appears increasingly likely.

Over the weekend, significant escalation occurred: President Trump announced that the U.S. had conducted airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear sites using B-2 bombers. In response, Iran declared it would close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supply.

Bitcoin closed below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and extended its decline over the weekend. It is now in an intermediate downtrend, making lower lows and breaching the $100K psychological level. There could be further weakness ahead with no significant support levels until the 200 SMA.

Watchlist

If indices continue to decline and volatility picks up, the focus will shift more toward short setups, as it's generally more effective to trade in alignment with the broader market trend during periods of downside pressure. However, it's important to keep potential long setups on watch in case the market shakes off the negative news and resumes its upward trend.

CRCL 0.00%↑ saw a massive surge this week after the GENIUS Act was passed in the Senate, fueling optimism around stablecoins. With the IPO price at $31, the stock is now trading nearly 8x higher. If it continues to gap up and extend in a parabolic fashion, it could offer a high-probability short setup as it becomes technically overextended.

CRWV 0.00%↑ continues its strong rally, having held above the daily 10EMA since the move began in early May.

MSTR 0.00%↑ is breaking below its 50-day SMA following Bitcoin’s weakness and also falling out of a recent consolidation range.

RGTI 0.00%↑ watching for a potential breakdown of the 50SMA and a lower low below the $10.70–$11 area.

QBTS 0.00%↑ breaking down below the $15 level with a potential gap-fill in play.

ARQQ 0.00%↑ another extended quantum computing name that is vulnerable to downside, especially if sector sentiment and broader market conditions deteriorate.

HIMS 0.00%↑ forming a potential cup-and-handle pattern on the daily chart and has been consolidating for several weeks. A breakout could offer a long opportunity, if the broader market direction is favourable.

SMCI 0.00%↑ continues to consolidate after reclaiming its 200SMA. A breakout from this base could trigger a new leg higher, but market sentiment will be key.

RKLB 0.00%↑ persistently testing the $30 area, which has acted as significant resistance.

Small-cap oil stocks could offer short-term trading opportunities heading into next week with the story around the Strait of Hormuz closure potentially having impact on oil markets.

HUSA 0.00%↑ INDO 0.00%↑ USEG 0.00%↑ RBNE 0.00%↑

Trade Highlights

COIN 0.00%↑ broke out from a multi-week range, driven by the passing of the GENIUS Act and a strong rally in Circle, as Coinbase benefits with a 50% revenue share.