Weekly Market Recap, Watchlist & Trade Highlights 06/30/25

Stock market breakout: all time highs as geopolitical tensions ease

Jun 29, 2025

Market Recap

This week, both the SPY 0.00%↑ and QQQ 0.00%↑ broke out to all-time highs, signaling strong bullish momentum across major U.S. equity indices.

On Sunday, crude oil futures gapped up at the open but immediately began to fade throughout the session, a sign that the market was discounting the weekend geopolitical headlines. At the same time, equity index futures gapped down but steadily recovered throughout the session.

By Monday midday, reports emerged that Iran had retaliated with a staged missile strike, a move widely seen as symbolic and pre-communicated to the U.S. This deliberate signaling helped to diffuse fears of further escalation. The immediate reaction was a sharp selloff in crude oil futures, confirming that the market perceived the retaliation as largely non-threatening.

This de-escalation served as the catalyst for a breakout in the indices, which had been consolidating in a tight daily range. The breakout was accompanied by strength in the Nasdaq 100, which led the market all week, a classic characteristic of healthy bull market.

Supporting this risk-on environment, the VIX remains subdued, reflecting low demand for downside protection and overall investor confidence.

Meanwhile in crypto, BTC was sold off over the weekend, but importantly, it held the key 100k psychological level. Since then, BTC has reclaimed all major moving averages and is currently in a quiet consolidation phase, suggesting healthy digestion of prior gains and potential for continuation in the coming weeks ahead.

Over the weekend, the Senate is set to vote on advancing Trump’s so-called “Big Beautiful Bill”, a potential political talking point that could drive headlines and market narrative in the weeks to come.

Next week is holiday-shortened, with a half-day session on Thursday and markets closed Friday for Independence Day.

Watchlist

AEVA 0.00%↑ has been on an extraordinary run since breaking out above the $8 level in early May, rallying over 300% in just a matter of weeks. More impressively, the stock is now up over 1000% from its March earnings report, which initially sparked the move, surging from $3 to a recent high of $36.43.

As the rate of change accelerates and price action becomes more vertical, the chart becomes interesting for a parabolic/exhaustion reversal trade. Ideally on further extensions or gap ups, look for some kind of failed breakout or intraday reversal to trigger a short trade.

IREN 0.00%↑ has rallied sharply over the past two sessions, driven by sympathy momentum following news that Coreweave is pursuing an acquisition of Core Scientific CORZ 0.00%↑, another data center stock. Price is approaching a major resistance zone around the $15.50 area, which has acted as a supply zone in previous attempts.

TOST 0.00%↑ failed to breakdown and held the support zone last week but remains in a range. A higher low and a tighter area could be potential for a breakout trade through the top of the range.

BBAI 0.00%↑ broke out last week with heavy volume, which is especially notable given it had suffered a -75% decline from its February highs. The rising volume in this recent move is interesting and could suggest renewed momentum.

NBIS 0.00%↑ is consolidating and looks poised for a breakout above $55.

SMCI 0.00%↑ has been trading sideways for weeks after reclaiming the 200-day moving average. It broke out Thursday but pulled back Friday after three straight up days. With the semiconductor sector strong and NVDA at all-time highs, SMCI could see further continuation as long as the uptrend holds.

PLTR 0.00%↑ dropped sharply Friday amid Russell rebalancing but retraced much of the move in after-hours. Despite closing below the 20-day moving average, the daily chart still shows a higher low, so has not broken the uptrend yet.

CRCL 0.00%↑ topped out Monday and has sold off sharply all week. If the steep decline continues, there could be potential for a short term dead cat bounce trade.

Trade Highlights

TSLA 0.00%↑ broke out on Monday with optimism on the robotaxi launch last weekend. However the breakout retraced its gains and the trade was closed for a small profit.