Weekly Watchlist 08/25/25
Jackson Hole rally, strong breakout in IWM, Ethereum makes new all time highs
Market Recap
The week began on a quiet note, with equities largely range-bound. However, by Tuesday and Wednesday, markets faced a steep selloff, led by weakness in large-cap tech (QQQ 0.00%↑). In contrast, small caps (IWM 0.00%↑) held up relatively well, showing resilience even as broader risk sentiment deteriorated.
The main event of the week was Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Powell’s speech was the clear catalyst. Investors interpreted his remarks as dovish, reinforcing expectations that the Fed is preparing to ease policy sooner rather than later.
Following the speech, markets rebounded strongly, with equities broadly higher into the weekend. The standout performers were IWM 0.00%↑ being up nearly 4%, as well as Ethereum making a new all time high. The CME FedWatch Tool now assigns a 75% probability of a September rate cut.
Watchlist
Earnings season is winding down, but not without a major spotlight on Nvidia. The company is set to report on Wednesday, and as one of the market’s most important stocks, the results will be closely watched.
A few stocks worth noting apart from NVDA 0.00%↑ are PDD 0.00%↑, IREN 0.00%↑, AFRM 0.00%↑, BABA 0.00%↑
In the crypto sector, Ethereum (ETH) continues to show relative strength, breaking out to all-time highs this week following Friday’s market rally. Its performance underscores the broader risk-on tone that returned after Powell’s remarks. If the rally continues, some Ethereum treasury stocks will be on watch for momentum trades: BMNR 0.00%↑ SBET 0.00%↑ BTCS 0.00%↑ ETHZ 0.00%↑.
Small caps (IWM 0.00%↑) delivered a powerful breakout on Friday, surging nearly 4% in a single session. This marks one of the strongest daily gains of the year and adds to the theme of relative strength in IWM compared to large-cap tech.
Historically, over the past couple of years, IWM has tended to follow such breakouts with 2–3 day momentum runs, suggesting further upside potential in the near term.
One possible scenario is that small caps continue to rally into the September FOMC meeting, driven by dovish policy expectations - a classic “buy the rumor, sell the news” setup.
TSLA 0.00%↑ - Tesla has been consolidating for roughly three months, trading sideways since May. Despite multiple negative headlines, including a public feud with Trump and a weak earnings release, the stock has proven resilient, holding its range without breaking down. If TSLA can decisively break above recent highs, it could trigger an explosive upside move after months of coiling price action.
OPEN 0.00%↑ OpenDoor Technologies - Closing at a new high, back to levels first seen during the July squeeze, with volume picking up again. With the broader market backdrop supportive (risk-on tone after Powell + small caps breaking out), conditions are favorable for momentum-driven moves. Given its meme status, there’s potential for an outlier upside move if momentum continues to build.
TAN 0.00%↑ solar stocks remain on watch as a rate sensitive sector, as well as multiple stocks looking constructive RUN 0.00%↑ SHLS 0.00%↑ SEDG 0.00%↑ NXT 0.00%↑.
TEM 0.00%↑ has been acting strongly after earnings, rallying almost 40% since. It continues to exhibit relative strength over the last week, and made new highs while most stocks did not.
TLRY 0.00%↑ following news that Trump said he is weighing drug reclassification, weed stocks could potentially be ready for another rally.
Trade Highlights
MSTR 0.00%↑ presented a good short opportunity during the market selloff as it was breaking a significant daily level:
PLTR 0.00%↑ was one of the most oversold stocks during the market selloff, presenting a capitulation bounce long trade:
OPEN 0.00%↑ a classic bull flag breakout continuation trade after the strong rally on Friday morning:
For intraday updates and daily trade setups, including day and swing trades, check out the link below to join the community:
Great!
🫡🫡